STORM INVEST 90L MAY 24, 2018...0254 PM EDT

STORM INVEST 90L

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

18Z CURRENT MODEL RUN

 LATE MODEL RUN

 GFS ENSEMBLE

DAYS 1-5 RAINFALL OUTLOOK

18Z INTENSITY MODEL RUN

CARIBBEAN CLOUD TOP SATELLITE