Friday, July 27, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 27, 2018... 0258 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
698 
AXNT20 KNHC 271728
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis 
from 05N-17N along 32W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being 
covered by a Saharan air, which is suppressing convection mainly 
north of 10N. Shallow moisture associated with the monsoon trough
and diffluence in the upper-levels support scattered showers 
along the wave's axis south of 10N. 

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with axis extending from
05N-17N along 42W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Intrusion of 
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering 
convection at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 06N-19N along 57W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Similar 
to the tropical wave to the east, Saharan dry air and dust is 
inhibiting convection with this feature.

A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south 
of 21N along 77W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted 
along the southern portion of the wave where it meets the monsoon 
trough S of 12N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W 
to 06N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 06N55W. Scattered 
showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 22W-34W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends its axis SW across the 
basin, thus supporting light to gentle variable winds basin- 
wide. A surface trough is moving over the Bay of Campeche 
enhancing winds in this area to moderate levels. The trough will 
then dissipate this afternoon. This feature will develop again 
over the next several nights with winds increasing to locally 
fresh at times. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at lower levels show 
very dry air in the Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail across the 
basin through the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the 
Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move 
into this region by Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent 
environment aloft are supporting scattered showers within 90 nm 
off the coast of Cuba. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's 
monsoon trough supports scattered showers south of 12N between 
75W-83W. This activity is also related to a tropical wave, 
currently extending along 77W. Refer to the section above for more
details. Isolated showers are occurring in the northern Leeward 
Islands and the Virgin Islands being supported by diffluence aloft
associated to an upper-level low centered northeast of Puerto 
Rico. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser 
Antilles tonight, and a second wave will enter the east Caribbean
by Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast for 
the south-central basin through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the 
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high
over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers 
and tstms north of 20N W of 70W. The upper-level trough will 
prevail through today, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity 
over this area. Farther east, a middle level low just north of 
Hispaniola supports a surface trough that extends from 25N66W to 
22N68W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this features
between 64W-70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the 
remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered 
near 37N53W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern
Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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No change the tropics remain quiet... RTW

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