TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2018... 1052 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

047 
AXNT20 KNHC 311206
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT tue Jul 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 21W from 05N-
17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A well defined surface trough is 
evident from scatterometer data, and a maximum in the total 
precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is in 
the southern wave environment from 05N-09N between 14W-27W 
associated with the monsoon trough

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands along 32W from 
07N-26N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in 
the GFS analysis is noted with this wave. No convection is 
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 47W from 
02N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Saharan Air Layer dry air and 
dust inhibit deep convection from developing at the time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 
72W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is inland 
over Venezuela and Hispaniola.

A tropical wave is along 95W, moving westward at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection exists in the Bay of 
Campeche...heavy showers and tstms are E of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W 
to 10N21W to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to the coast 
of South America near 06N58W, disrupted near 07N44W where it 
intersects a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection 
is present from 05N-09N east of 25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge and weak pressure gradient extends into the 
eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. Winds are only 5-10 kt across 
the entire Gulf. An upper level trough is supporting widely 
scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Gulf. Winds 
will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial 
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward 
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf 
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with 
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon 
trough in the NE Pacific supports a moderate pressure gradient 
over the Caribbean. Trade winds are 10-20 kt with highest winds 
around 25 kt just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 18N-21N between 78W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the 
monsoon trough supports widespread showers south of 12N between 
75W-83W. Little change expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves moving across the basin are detailed above. 
The subtropical high dominates the basin. Isolated convection is 
observed in the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging 
will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next 
couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for 
scattered convection associated with the wave currently near 19W.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
DM/NR 

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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time! 

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