National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 16N
southward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 08N between 45W and 50W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 20N southward.
The tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola, NW Venezuela and NE
Colombia. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.
A tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 22N southward. The tropical
wave is moving through the eastern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW Caribbean
Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward.
Storm Investigations
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051147
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak trough of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions are still conducive for
some development before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time. This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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NHC is monitoring two areas for tropical cyclone formation. The one
with the highest chance is over the Central Atlantic tracking westward.
Some models suggest that this system will weaken and dissipate as it
tracks into the Eastern Caribbean. Conditions are not all that favorable
ahead of this system but it bares watching...RTW
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