ERNESTO UPDATE
951
WTNT35 KNHC 152035
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018
500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018
...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward
motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through
early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or
early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the
United Kingdom on Saturday.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL OUTLOOK
956
AXNT20 KNHC 151809
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
209 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Subtropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 38.1N 46.0W at 15/1500
UTC or 600 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa
along 19W, from 05N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are
possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 06N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on
either side of the wave.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 06N-22N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W-
60W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving
W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is
now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa from near
09N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 10N36W. The
ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides
the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between
40W-47W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large
upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the
surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N
between 96W-98W.
The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region
for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move
off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night,
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above.
A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near
25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level
diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba.
The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 70W-80W.
A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain
fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest
of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
elsewhere.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered
showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large
upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W.
Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection
near 30N47W.
At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 30N68W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N55W
to 26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between
56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from
32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N
between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of 23N between 15W-45W.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Formosa
---------------------------------------------------------------
Ernesto expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters
of the north Atlantic. I am monitoring an area of showers
storms between 50°-40° West and 10° North that has a slight
chance for short term development...RTW
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE SERVER TO MY SITE PROVIDER
SEEMS TO BE TEMPORARY DOWN SO CHECK BACK LATER.
ALSO NOTE THAT I WAS UNABLE TO UPDATE RTW TRACK MAP.
BECAUSE OF SERVER PROBLEM...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
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