ERNESTO UPDATE AND TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 16, 2018...

ERNESTO UPDATE:

168 
WTNT35 KNHC 161451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 43.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.2 West.  The
storm is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A
significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.  Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) primarily to
the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

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TROPICAL OUTLOOK:

666 
AXNT20 KNHC 161205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/0900 UTC is near 
40.8N 44.1W, or 975 km to the SE of Cape Race in Newfoundland. 
Ernesto is moving NNE at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 
knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 38N to 43N between 40W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W, from 04N-20N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is along 48W, from 03N-18N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-17N between 47W-58W.

A tropical wave is along 61W, from 09N-21N. There is no convection
associated with this wave at this time. 

A tropical wave is along 89W S of 22N. This wave stretches into 
the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is no convection associated with
this wave at this time. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 
12N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins near 08N30W and continues to 
07N40W to 09N47W then resumes near 08N49W to 07N57W. For
convection information see the tropical waves section. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered SE of Louisiana supporting
isolated rainshowers in the NE Gulf. Middle level diffluent flow
support scattered showers and tstms in the SE basin.

A surface ridge that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean 
into the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue across the region 
into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, 
accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough. 

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 75W in Colombia beyond
84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 15N southward from 72W westward, in an area of middle
level to lower level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will 
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south 
central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, in the central
Atlantic Ocean, to 27N47W, to an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center that is near 22N60W, to a cyclonic circulation
center that is along the coast of the Dominican Republic near
19N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 60W and the Windward Passage, and it
spans the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N44W 27N50W 22N60W, to the northern coast of
Puerto Rico along 66W/67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough
extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 33N57W,
through 30N58W, to 25N64W.

An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough. 

Surface high pressure will continue across the area through
Monday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MF/NR

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ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME

EXTRA-TROPICAL.  INVEST 99L MOVING CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH

STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES IN THE 

EASTERN CARIBBEAN...RTW

STILL WORKING WITH THE SITE PROVIDER TO SEE WHY I CAN'T CONNECT TO

THEIR SERVER SO I CAN EDIT AND PUBLISH RTW WEBSITE.  I WILL KEEP YOU

POSTED!... RTW