Friday, August 24, 2018

HURRICANE LANE UPDATE AUG 24, 2018...0800 AM HST

WTPA32 PHFO 241807
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
800 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
...HURRICANE LANE LURKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO SOME AREAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should already be complete.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was
estimated by radar and satellite to be near latitude 18.8 North,
longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 2 mph (3
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an
increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center
of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central
Hawaiian islands later today and tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast later today and
tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
approaches the islands. Further weakening is expected on Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

A weather station near Waimea on the Big Island recently reported
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with gusts to 51 mph (82 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui
County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30
inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the
windward side of the Big Island.
 
SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane



5day Wind Field Radius
Present Wind field Radius
Radar below are from different islands


Satellite and radar combined
Satellite no radar overlay
Water vapor satellite
Latest guidance models
Late or previous model run
GFS Ensemble
 Video looping through different overlays and animation combined

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