WTPA32 PHFO 241807 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 800 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018 ...HURRICANE LANE LURKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO SOME AREAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Oahu * Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should already be complete. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was estimated by radar and satellite to be near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 2 mph (3 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central Hawaiian islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast later today and tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the islands. Further weakening is expected on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A weather station near Waimea on the Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with gusts to 51 mph (82 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday. RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40 inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30 inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the windward side of the Big Island. SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to significant coastal erosion. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballardhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane
5day Wind Field Radius
Present Wind field Radius
Radar below are from different islands
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Water vapor satellite
Latest guidance models
Late or previous model run
GFS Ensemble
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