National Hurricane Center
743
AXNT20 KNHC 061149
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale warning in the south-central Caribbean...
A strong ridge over the E CONUS extending E to Atlc adjacent waters
W of 60W will tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central
Caribbean early this week as a tropical wave moves W of
Hispaniola. Gale force winds are forecast for the Gulf of
Venezuela Tue night and along the coast of Colombia Wed night.
Please see the National Hurricane Center Atlantic High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
07N-18N along 34W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show
abundant shallow moisture in the wave environment. However, the
wave continues to be affected by Saharan dry air and dust
intrusion, which is limiting convection to isolated showers from
10N-12N between 32W-37W.
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
05N-16N along 46W, moving W at about 10 kt. The wave continues to
be severely affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust as
indicated by GOES-16 RGBs, water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery at the
lower levels. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ
supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 10N.
A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis S of 21N along
70W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment
at the lower levels as indicated by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water
vapor imagery. The wave is underneath a diffluent environment
between an elongated upper-level low over the central basin and
S-SW flow to the E, which is supporting scattered showers N of
16N between 65W-70W.
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 21N along
79W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture
associated with the wave. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of
10N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 11N30W to 10N42W. The
ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 07N48W and continues to
08N55W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed along
the monsoon trough between 37W-42 and along the ITCZ.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across the Florida
Peninsula to the SW Gulf of Mexico, where a weakness in the ridge
is analyzed as a surface trough from 28N95W to the Bay of Campeche
near 18N92W. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. Return
flow provided by the ridge continues to advect shallow moisture
from the Caribbean and SW N Atlc waters into the Gulf, which is
supporting scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan
Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 85W-88W. Another
surface trough is in the far east Gulf from the Florida Big Bend
to 31N84W to 26N84W with scattered showers.
Expect for convection to continue across the west Gulf through
tonight. Isolated showers are forecast in the Bay of Campeche
through the middle of the week associated with a thermal surface
trough that will come off the Yucatan Peninsula at night. This
trough will also enhance the winds to fresh off the W Yucatan
Peninsula. Surface ridging is forecast to prevail through the week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
GOES-16 RGBs continue to show a thin layer of Saharan dust moving
across most of the basin where strong deep-layer wind shear
prevails. This environment continues to suppress the development
of significant convection in the region. However, shallow
moisture is across the basin supporting scattered showers and
tstms within 90 nm off the S coast of Cuba. The monsoon trough
supports similar convection within 120 nm off southern Panama. A
tropical wave is in the W Caribbean lacking convection while an
upper-level low over the central basin supports scattered showers
in the vicinity of a tropical wave just W of the Mona Passage.
See the tropical waves section for further details. Fresh to
near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast
to increase to gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the
coast of Colombia Wed and Thu, respectively. See the Special
Features section for further details.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A non-tropical, surface low pressure
system centered near 31N50W is interacting with a broad upper-
level low. Although thunderstorm activity has increased near and
to the east of the low-level center, environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for the low to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves little over
the next day or so. By this afternoon, the low is expected to
move toward the north or north-northeast and continue that motion
through Tuesday. SE of this low, a surface trough extends from
31N45W to 25N53W to 26N64W supporting scattered showers and tstms
N of 29N between 43W-50W. Aside from the tropical waves, the
remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of surface high
pressure that supports fair weather.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Ramos/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Other than INVEST 97L the tropics remain quiet... RTW
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