TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2018... 1114 AM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC

311 
AXNT20 KNHC 241204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa along 16W from
04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from
11N-21N between 14W-24W.  

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 02N-
17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very
dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant 
convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the 
wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N. 

An E Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along 61W 
from 02N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer that is spreading westward across the Atlantic. 
Scattered moderate convection is near Trinidad from 09N-11N
between 60W-64W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W south of 20N 
to 03N79W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is over the southern portion of the
wave from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 94W south of 20N, moving 
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the Bay of 
Campeche S of 20N.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 
08N26W to 07N39W. The ITCZ beginsW of a tropical wave from 07N41W
to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between
10W-32W. Scattered showers are from 02N-08N between 38W-45W. 


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across N Florida from 30N80W
to 28N83W. A pre- frontal trough extends over central Florida and
the E Gulf of Mexico from 27N80W to 26N86W. Scattered showers are
over the Florida Peninsula. An approaching tropical wave is
advecting scattered showers oveer W Cuba and the Straits of
Florida. The Bay of Campeche has similar showers due to another
tropical wave. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. The 
pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout,
with a wind shift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, 
an upper level high centered over southern Texas is producing NE 
upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect 
the front to fully dissipate during the next 12 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the
Cayman Islands at 18N82W. The low is enhancing scattered 
showers near the upper-low center, together with a tropical wave 
along 80W. 

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming 
weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas 
building to 9 ft. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern
portion of the basin during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of
northern Florida from 32N76W to 30N80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is north of 28N and west of 76W. To the east, scattered
showers are over the west Atlantic from 25N-30N between 67W-74W 
due to an upper-level low centered near 25N72W. A surface trough 
extends over the central Atlantic from 24N57W to 21N60W. Scattered
showers are noted along the trough. Another trough extends from 
32N34W to 26N37W. Saharan dust and associated dry air, although 
not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on 
GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection 
limited to non-existent across most of the Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

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Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Monday!  The 

storm invest off the African coast which is another wave with a low 

chance for development as it moves swiftly across the Atlantic.

Some models suggest maybe some development when it slows 

down as it tracks either north of the Islands or as it enters the eastern 

Caribbean by the end of this month... RTW