Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
687
AXNT20 KNHC 291205
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis along 32W
between 03N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is
embedded on the wave axis near 08N32W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-10N between 29W-36W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis from 20N57W to
07N61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 13N-20N
between 54W-64W, over the Leeward Islands.
A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean with axis
along 86W between 03N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and Central America.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W to 09N26W to a 1012 mb low near 08N32W to 08N39W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 06N45W to 08N51W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is alongthe coast of W Africa from
08N-14N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between
42W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level low is in the NE corner of Mexico near 26N100W.
Cyclonic flow covers Texas and N Mexico and the W Gulf of Mexico
N of 20N and W of 94W. Isolated moderate convection is over the
area. Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf
near 30N88W. Scattered showers are over the E Gulf, Florida, and W
Cuba. At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin along 30N
with 10 kt SE return flow.
A surface trough will develop each night over the Yucatan
Peninsula, then push offshore into the Bay of Campeche with
convection. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
accompany this trough. A surface ridge will continue to dominate
the reminder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate
winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean, and another
tropical wave has entered the E Caribbean. Refer to the section
above for details. An upper level low is centered over Jamaica
near 18N77W. This feature is producing isolated moderate
convection over Jamaica and E Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N to include
N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.
Fresh to strong winds will develop each night in the south
central Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A tropical wave with an embedded low is moving across the basin.
Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 26N60W. Scattered showers
are within 300 nm of the center. On the surface, a trough is over
the W Atlantic from 30N80W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted
within 120 nm of the trough. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic
near 29N67W. To the east, another 1025 mb high is centered near
37N22W.
Surface ridging will prevail through the forecast period. Expect
moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds N
of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of
Hispaniola at night through the weekend.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Storm Investigation
107
ABNT20 KNHC 291129
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A low pressure area is forecast to form between the coast of Africa
and the Cabo Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave that
is expected to move off the west coast of Africa late Thursday or
early Friday. Additional development is anticipated, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Still monitoring the African coast for waves with potential for
development. Also off east of Florida since the EURO model still
suggesting development over the Bahamas...RTW
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