TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 30, 2018... 0411 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by RTW

484 
AXNT20 KNHC 301744
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 12.9N 18.4W at
30/1500 UTC or 370 nm ESE of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and
Brava. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
08N-15N between 14W-27W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W from 15N 
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is 
from 07N-09N between 36W-43W.

An E Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 20N70W to 
07N71W, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
over the NE Caribbean from 15N-22N between 60W-73W.

A tropical wave extends its axis over the Bay of Campeche along 
93W between 06N-21N, moving west at 20 kt. Isolated moderate 
convection prevails over southern Mexico S of 19N between 94W- 
100W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near  
12N16W to 11N30W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to the
coast of South America near 06N54W. Besides the convection
mentioned with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and the tropical
wave, isolated moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 44W- 
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 25N100W.
Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 30N86W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is 
over the N Gulf N of 23N. At the surface, a ridge extends along 
30N producing 10-15 kt SE surface flow. A tropical wave is over 
the Bay of Campeche. See above. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Refer to the section 
above for details.

An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N73W.  
Upper level cyclonic flow covers the entire Caribbean. An area of
diffluent flow is over the NW Caribbean S of Cuba. 

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 
10N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N between 
72W-83W.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean, 
before diminishing through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low amplitude tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer 
to the section above for details.

A 1022 mb high is centered W of Bermuda near 32N71W. A 1026 mb 
high is centered near the Azores at 36N24W. Moderate to fresh 
winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 
24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just north of Hispaniola,
including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the 
evening and overnight hours through the weekend. A tropical wave 
over the east Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will produce 
active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and
Bahamas through Monday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Storm Investigation

296 
ABNT20 KNHC 301748
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea
and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread
westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, this system could
produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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As for the storm invest I would not be to bummed out about it.  The

EURO has been gradually suggesting a weaker system if at all.  As

for other models they don't suggest any development at all.  

We still could see some rains and storms labor day as the

northern axis of this wave moves across the area.  Regardless of

development or not we should be storm ready as we enter the busiest

time of the season...RTW