TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 31, 2018... 1113 AM EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BY NHC

812 
AXNT20 KNHC 311207
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, at 31/0900 UTC, is 
near 13.6N 21.4W, or 190 nm ESE of the southernmost Cabo Verde 
Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The 
low center is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, at 10 knots. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical 
Storm Warning for Santiago, Fogo and Brava. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 15N between 21W and 
30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N 
to 16N between 16W and 21W. Please read the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 14N southward, 
moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 180
nm of the tropical wave. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 21N68W, through E
Hispaniola to N Colombia at 11N73W, moving west at 15 kt.  
Scattered moderate convection is over E Hispaniola from 17N-19N 
between 68W-71W. Similar convection is over NW Venezuela from 08N-
11N between 70W-73W.

A tropical wave is over S Mexico along 96W from 19N southward, 
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis over S Mexico. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, through the 1006 mb low pressure center that has the
potential to develop into a tropical cyclone, to 11N30W, and to 
08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 07N53W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is 05N-11N between 30W-40W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of Trinidad from 08N-10N between 58W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small area of an upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
SE Louisiana/the north central Gulf of Mexico. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico from
23N-30N between 80W-90W. An upper level cyclonic circulation 
center is in interior Mexico near 25N101W. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are from 24N to 27N between 92W and 96W. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are over the W Gulf of
Mexico. 

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend 
and support gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will 
develop each evening in the Yucatan Peninsula. It will move W and
offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours.
A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this 
trough each night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the Windward Passage. Isolated
moderate convection is S of Cuba. 

The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 
09N/10N from Costa Rica to Colombia.Scattered moderate convection
is from 10N-12N between 80W-84W. 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south 
central Caribbean Sea during the next several nights. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave, currently
over Hispaniola, will move through the western Caribbean Sea by 
late Sunday into early Monday, and the wave will be accompanied by
active weather. A second tropical wave will pass to the west of 
55W on Saturday, into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Saturday night,
and into the central Caribbean Sea early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 35N48W cyclonic circulation 
center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 
31N57W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 
26N61W, to 24N65W. A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is 
along 32N40W to 21N46W. An upper level trough is along 75W/76W, 
from SE Cuba/the Windward Passage to 33N, about 250 nm to the east
of the SE U.S.A. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of 
the line that passes through 32N40W to 24N50W to 20N60W.

Surface high pressure will remain centered SW to W of Bermuda
through the forecast period. A tropical wave, moving across the E
Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, will produce 
active weather as it moves westward across the waters that are to
the south of 25N and Bahamas through Monday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

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OTHER THAN PTC SIX NEAR CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL WAVE 

IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF

LOW PRESSURE, THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW.

https://ralphstropicalweather.com/