TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 7, 2018... 1047 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

093 
AXNT20 KNHC 071202
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. A 
strong Atlantic ridge west of 60W is tightening the pressure 
gradient in the south-central Caribbean. Scatterometer data has 
confirmed the existence of gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Venezuela, and 30 kt winds along the coast of Colombia near 
13N71W. Gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Venezuela on
overnight and along the coast of Colombia by Wed night. Please 
see the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 19N37W 
to 08N41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer data depicts a 
distinct shift in wind direction along the convergence zone axis 
west of the wave. The northern part of the wave is affected by 
Saharan dry air intrusion, limiting convection to the area south 
of 14N between 36W and 44W. 

A tropical wave in the equatorial central Atlantic extends from 
02N-14N along 52W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be
affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. Shallow 
moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports scattered showers 
convection mainly S of 08N. 

A tropical wave axis in the central Caribbean extends south of 
22N along 74W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist 
environment at the lower levels as indicated by LPW and water 
vapor imagery, and under a diffluent environment between an 
elongated upper-level low over the central basin and S-SW flow to 
the east, which is supporting scattered showers N of 18N between 
70W-73W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis S of 21N 
along 84W, moving W at 10-15 kt. LPW imagery shows shallow 
moisture in the vicinity of the wave, and interaction with the 
monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 
12N between 80W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 20N17W and 
extends southwestward to 13N25W then westward to 18N39W. The ITCZ
begins W of a tropical wave near 10N41W and continues to 06N51W, 
then resumes near 08N53W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection 
related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is 
observed along the ITCZ between 40W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic 
into the northern Gulf. Scattered convection is observed just W 
of the Florida peninsula, a remnant of evening thunderstorms 
over land. Return flow associated with the surface ridge 
continues to advect shallow moisture from the Caribbean into the 
Gulf, supporting scattered moderate convection in the Yucatan 
Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 84W-90W. A surface 
trough is in the NE Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to 29N84W 
with associated convection over land at this time.

Expect convection to fire up again across the basin later today. 
A nocturnal thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night, and enhance the NE winds off the W Yucatan 
Peninsula. Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced satellite imagery continues to show a thin layer of 
Saharan dust moving across most of the basin where deep-layer 
wind shear prevails. This environment continues to suppress the 
development of significant convection across the basin. Shallow 
moisture is present south of Cuba, supporting scattered showers. 
The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports convection near 
Panama. Fresh to near-gale force winds in the south-central 
Caribbean are forecast to increase to gale-force gusts in the 
Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia by tonight, then 
sustained gale-force winds will develop through midweek. See the 
Special Features section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above for 
details. A subtropical low pressure system centered near 35N48W 
interacting with a broad upper-level low has organized showers 
and thunderstorms N of its center. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be marginally conducive for it to acquire tropical 
characteristics, and chances for tropical cyclone development 
are low. A surface trough extends S and SE from it to 24N57W 
supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 30N between 40W-50W. 
Aside from the tropical waves, the remainder of the Atlc is 
under the influence of surface high pressure that supports fair 
weather.


For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell/ERA

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

313 
ABNT20 KNHC 071118
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Early visible satellite images indicate that the shower activity
associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located a little
more than 900 miles west-southwest of the Azores continues to
show some signs of organization. Although the shower activity has
decreased somewhat during the past few hours, this system could
still acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics later today.
By Wednesday, however, the low will encounter increasingly cooler
waters, which will hinder development while the system moves toward
the north-northeast over the open North Atlantic.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila 

---------------------------------------------------------------

 INVEST 97L is gradually becoming better organized as it tracks

northeast and away from cooled sea surface temps related to this 

97L. 97L has the potential to become a sub-tropical ora tropical 

cyclone within in a day or so. Elsewhere the tropics remains 

quiet... RTW 

https://ralphstropicalweather.com/