FLORENCE 12Z GFS WIND GUST MODEL AND 12Z NAM REFLECTIVITY MODEL

12z GFS Wind Gust Model Shows a landfall on the Outer Banks. This is why they use the cone of area and you should never follow the forecast line. However, once again this is only a forecast and it can change.

12z NAM Reflectivity Model also suggest landfall in the Outer Banks.
This is a future reflectivity radar forecast. Remember this is only a forecast and subject to change.