Satellite imagery shows that Michael's inflow is being cut off by westerly upper level shear at this time. Slow strengthening is forecast until Michael moves away from the Northwest Caribbean and enters the southern Gulf.
Recon relocated the center of Michael further east of previous location and NHC had to adjust the forecast track Eastward as well.
The question, is will Michael reform the center further east of present location again? If so This would throw a monkey wrench in the forecast for the west coast of Florida and the Lower keys if that eastward relocation continues.
The northeast bend over northern Florida at the end of forecast is in response to trough that is tracking east from the central U.S., the timing of this trough determines when the north eastward turn will occur. Either it crosses the Florida Big Bend or further south of there.
The Atlantic high pressure ridge is keeping the cyclone from tracking northeast for now so the cyclone is forecast to track northward around the peripheral of the Atlantic high pressure ridge.
Interest from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle and southward along the Florida west coast including the Keys should closely monitor the progress of Michael and be ready in case the forecast keeps shifting eastward.
RTW
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