INVEST 91L 0800 PM EDT UPDATE JUNE 1, 2019

STORM INVESTIGATION UPDATE:

Invest 91L gradually showing signs of organization, however proximity to land and slow moving is not allowing this system to develop quicker which is a good thing.  Upper level winds over the northern and central Gulf are not favorable for development at this time.

Models like the GFS and other models take 91L into western Mexico and while some other models like the CMC, EURO, and the HWRF model insist on a ride along the Mexico/ Texas coast and into Louisiana as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm.  All this is speculations at this time because we know that the further out the forecast is the less accurate it is.  Also we know these storms don't follow a straight path and could end up anywhere from inland Mexico to Louisiana.  All we can do now is monitor and be ready to act if indeed this system sets it sites on your area.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW 

 National Hurricane Center

769 
ABNT20 KNHC 012334
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early next week.  Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.  An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance on Sunday, if necessary.  Interests along the Gulf coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven