INVEST 92L TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 10, 2019

INVEST 92L IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OVER THE WARM NORTHERN GULF WATERS.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR CAT 1 TO A CAT 2 HURRICANE AND THERE ARE NO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT WOULD HINDER A STRONG STORM. SO ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD BE A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ON SHORE LOUISIANA.  ALL INTEREST FROM TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FLOOD PROBLEM AND YOU SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE IF TOLD TO EVACUATE.  THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE AS A STRONG HURRICANE.

MODELS SOME WHAT CLUSTERED TOGETHER AND MORE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUN.  THESE MODEL RUN WILL ALWAYS SHIFT BACK AND FORTH, BUT SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING CLOSER THE ACCURACY OF THE MODELS BECOME BETTER AND TIGHTER.  

RTW  

12Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN

 12Z CMC COMBO MODEL RUN BY RTW

 12Z H-MODEL COMBO RUN BY RTW

 12Z

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101106
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida,
is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical-
storm- or hurricane-force winds across portions of the Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Upper Texas coasts later this week, and interests
there should closely monitor its progress.  In addition, this
disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from
the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle.  For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart