STORM INVESTIGATION 95L JULY 29, 2019

This morning color satellite shows a nice spin associated with Invest 95L, however, at this time it is lacking convection (thunderstorm activity).  We will more than likely see more of thunderstorms during daylight hours as the sun begins to heat the surface.

Heavy rains in squalls will will affect the Lesser Antilles northern Leeward islands, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic it the coming days.

Model are not getting to excited about this system at this time, so it's a watch and see what comes of this system.  The intensity model slowly backing down for a cat 1 hurricane, but still borderline at this time.  I will keep you posted.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

365 
ABNT20 KNHC 290515
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea
to just north of the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next
few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some
flooding across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance, however, is
likely during this time as upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive.  The system is forecast to move near or over the
Straits of Florida and the Bahamas by the end of the week, where
environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch