TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 9, 2019 0328 PM EDT

Now that the surface low is over the northeast Gulf waters we will begin to see more thunderstorms activity along the Northern and Northeast Gulf coast.  Slow development expected until this low tracks further west over the Gulf.  After that well waters are warm enough for some strengthening and further development. 

Intensity models are now hinting at a strong tropical storm maybe even a cat 1 hurricane.  Some of the models have shifted a bit to the right of previous model run so your guess is as good as mine to where exactly 92L will make landfall. 

High pressure in the Atlantic is moving west over southeast Florida keeping a portion of the state dry while storms are building off the west coast of Florida.

Rainfall looks to be the major concern with this storms system at this present time.  Looking at a high potential for flooding as this system slowly tracks back inland in the coming days.

Now its time to make sure you have all your supplies and be ready to act if this storm heads your way.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system
could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

7-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST


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