TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 9, 2019 1100 AM EDT

Models continue to show development in the Northern Gulf but the American Model (GFS) shows a weak low not much development.  So far the Euro model is the most aggressive and the Canadian  model a bit stronger than the American (GFS) model.

So far intensity models are suggesting on a tropical storm at most, and I will continue to monitor those models for any changes.

Landfall to hard to tell at this time but its looking like Louisiana for now, and that can also change in time.  So far this system looks like a flood potential problem.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091102
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system located over the eastern Florida
Panhandle is producing disorganized shower activity. The low is
forecast to move southward to southwestward and emerge over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today.  Once the system is over
water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to
develop by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of whether
or not a tropical cyclone forms, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern
U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more information about the
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Tidbits.com