DORIAN 05 PM EDT PUBLIC ADVISORY

DORIAN 0500 PM EDT ADVISORY
AUG 26, 2019...
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

THERE ARE NO DOUBTS THAT WE COULD SEE DORIAN CROSS OVER FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEK, HOWEVER, WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 

MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST FLORIDA, ANYWHERE FROM SOUTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  OTHER QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL DORIAN BE.  WILL IT PASS DIRECTLY OVER DOMINICAN OR IN BETWEEN DOMINICAN AND PUERTO RICO.  

FORECASTING THIS SMALL STORM WILL BE DIFFICULT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  AS WE GET CLOSER TO A 5 DAY TO 6 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN MODELS INCREASES AND WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA WHERE THIS STORM MIGHT END UP. 

IN THE MEAN TIME CHECK YOUR SUPPLIES, BATTERIES, WATER AND OTHER ESSENTIAL ITEMS FOR YOUR KIT.  BE HURRICANE READY IN CASE DORIAN DECIDES TO COME.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT31 KNHC 262038
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 72.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 72.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slow
eastward or northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or
so.  The cyclone is expected to begin to accelerate northeastward
on Wednesday, and this general motion should continue through
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
remain well east of the east coast of the United States.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown