DORIAN 0500 PM EDT ADVISORY AUG 27, 2019

DORIAN 0500 PM EDT ADVISORY
AUG 27, 2019...0452 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER-RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT35 KNHC 272038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 62.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Saba and St.
Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), data from the Guadeloupe radar indicate
that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude
15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West.  Dorian is moving toward the
west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over
or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near
or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday
night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian
moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night.
Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday
while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions
of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart