DORIAN STRONGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AUG 28, 2019

DORIAN 11 PM EDT ADVISORY
AUG 28, 2019...1101 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

AIR FORCE RECON FLEW NIGHT MISSION INTO DORIAN THIS EVENING AND FOUND DORIAN HAS STRENGTHEN.  AS DORIAN MOVED AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN IT LEFT BEHIND SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING. 

DORIAN WILL HAVE A SMALL OBSTACLE THOUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM AND THAT COULD DISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT BREIFLY TOMORROW.  HOWEVER, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT WILL FEED DORIAN SO THE CYCLONE CAN STRENGTHEN INTO A CAT 3 HURRICANE.

SO FAR THE TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED DURING THIS ADVISORY, BUT IT IS STILL SOUTH OF YESTERDAYS FORECAST TRACK.  THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT AS THE CYCLONE GETS CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS WE WILL NO BETTER.

QUESTION IS WILL THERE STILL BE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OR WILL THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC BUILD WEST AND BLOCK OFF A NORTHERLY TRACK.  THIS IS WHAT I BELIEVE THE EURO MODEL IS RESPONDING TO AND THE OTHER MODELS RESPONDING TO THAT WEAK FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT UP AND AWAY.  THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THAT COULD SHIFT THE FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH.  REGARDLESS OF THIS A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND INTEREST FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR DORIAN.

RTW