Back before the beginning of hurricane season rumors were going around that this would be a below to near normal hurricane season due to an EL NIÑO. They kept saying strong EL NIÑE for peak of hurricane season. Well now that turned out to be all wrong, EL NIÑO has been fading and LA NIÑA has been slowly transitioning into the equation.
What does this add up to? Well this adds up to neutral conditions between a weak EL NIÑO and a weak La NIÑA. When we have conditions like this we are throwing a monkey wrench into the forecasts, more like a crap-shoot, all bets are off.
Think of neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) being in the center of a balance scale and EL NIÑO on the left and LA NIÑA on the right of the scale. Depending on the conditions and which one is strongest at that time the scale will tip that way. As we see it now the scale seems to be tilting more toward the right for LA NIÑA conditions because the Pacific waters have been cooling instead of warming.
So now the forecast goes from near normal to above normal. Yep..this is only a forecast and anything can go, so we have to be ready for what ever nature throw our way. Be Hurricane ready!
Here is NOAA's latest forecast for this season above normal.
https://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/2019/08/08/noaa-releases-updated-outlook-for-2019-hurricane-season/
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