FORECAST MODEL REVIEW

OKAY SO THE NEW MODELS ARE OUT AND WE STILL SEE SOME CUTTING THROUGH MELBOURNE OR SOUTH OF THERE AND OVER THE ORLANDO FLORIDA AREA.  SOME TURN NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA'S, AND BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THESE ARE THE NORTHERN TRENDING MODELS LIKE THE GFS.

THEN WE HAVE THE SOUTHERN TRENDING MODELS LIKE THE EURO, NAVY, THE CMC THAT TRACK TOWARD LOWER FLORIDA AND MAKE LANDFALL EITHER OVER PALM BEACH OR SOUTH OF THERE AND OTHERS JUST NORTH OF PALM BEACH.

WHAT I LIKE TO SEE IS, THAT MOST ARE NOW TURNING NORTH AT ONE POINT AND THIS IS DUE TO A PENDING WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  IF THE WEAKNESS IS PRESENT BEFORE THE STORM REACHES THE COAST THEN THE TURN NORTHWARD WILL OCCUR OFF SHORE THE FLORIDA COAST INSTEAD OF FLORIDA.

THERE ARE SOME MODELS OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND THOSE WOULD BE IDEAL BECAUSE DORIAN WOULD REMAIN OVER THE OCEAN.  I AM HOPING THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE BUT WE STILL HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND READY.

RTW

TRACK OF HURRICANE CLEO 1964

TRACK OF HURRICANE DAVID IN 1979

CORRECTION: 

JUST MADE CORRECTION TO THIS MAP BELOW.  I ADDED CORRECT MODEL FORM TODAY'S 12Z RUN