HURRICANE DORIAN ADVISORY

HURRICANE ADVISORY
AUG 29, 2019...1146 AM EDT
RTW

PLEASE BARE WITH ME ON MY UPDATES. I HAVE TO WAIT FOR NHC TO PUT OUT THEIR FORECAST THEN I HAVE TO PREPARE MY GRAPHICS TO MATCH THEIRS AMONG OTHER MODELS AND SCENARIOS I DRAW UP AND FINALLY TYPING UP MY DISCUSSION. SO IF I'M LATE AT LEAST YOU ALREADY KNOW WHAT NHC POSTED THEN YOU CAN SEE ANY EXTRA STUFF I GIVE YOU. I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS JUST ME -MYSELF AND I DOING NOT A TEAM OF 100 PEOPLE BEHIND THE SCENES.

THANKS FOR UNDERSTANDING
RTW

DORIAN AT THIS TIME IS ENCOUNTERING DRY AND A DUST FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS THE INFLOW BECAME STRONGER SINCE IT BECAME A HURRICANE.  YOU CAN SEE THE DUST OVER THE STORM SYSTEM AND ALSO COMING FROM THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE PASSAGE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

ALSO AS I MENTIONED LAST NIGHT IN ONE OF MY POST THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF DORIAN THAT IS DISRUPTING THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT BLOWS THE TOPS OFF THE COLDEST CLOUDS.  WHEN THIS OCCURS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO WARM AND THAT WEAKENS THE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE DORIAN'S CENTER.  AS DORIAN MOVES CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS CONDITION ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY OCCUR.  INTENSITY MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING A CATEGORY 4 MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. 

THE EURO MODEL, ECMWF AND A FEW OTHER MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SO THAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.

I BELIEVE THAT THE EURO AND THOSE TO THE SOUTH ARE SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC POSSIBLY BUILDING WEST OVER DORIAN CLOSING THE GAP OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC FOR ANY NORTHWARD TURN.  THE OTHER MODEL MAY BE SEEING A WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THAT ALLOWS FOR THE TURN NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SO AS IT IS NO HAVE YOU HURRICANE SUPPLIES READY AND FUEL YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE IT COMES YOUR WAY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday.  A west-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the
weekend.  On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well
east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday,
approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over
portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain
an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today.  Swells are likely to
begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

 OBSTACLES IMPEDING RAPID STRENGTHENING FOR NOW