HURRICANE DORIAN ADVISORY

HURRICANE DORIAN 11 PM ADVISORY
AUG 31, 2019...1100 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

 AS OF 11 PM THE NHC FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.  THE 5PM AND 11PM ARE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE OTHER TRACK.  THERE IS NO FURTHER SHIFT EAST, BUT STILL AN EXPECTED TURN.

DORIAN INCHING SO SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 8 MPH.  EARLIER THIS EVENING I POSTED THE EXPECTED WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM ESTIMATED 20-30 FOOT WAVES.

DORIAN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CAT 4 HURRICANE WITH 150 MPH WINDS.

RTW


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT35 KNHC 010252
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.  Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida on Sunday.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.1 West.  Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest.  On this track, the core of
Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States from central
Florida northward through the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches.
Central Bahamas and South Florida...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown