TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 1, 2019

Tropical Weather Outlook
AUG 1, 2019...0415 PM EDT
Ralph's Tropical Weather- RTW

1.  A strong westward moving tropical wave near 23° West is associated with a 1013 mb low pressure.  This system has thunderstorm activity swirling counter clockwise along the central axis of the wave.  This system has a chance for short lived development as it tracks westward.

2.  A strong westward moving tropical wave Invest 96L near 38° West is not showing signs of organization at this time.  However, there is a chance for short lived development into a tropical depression several hundred miles east of the northern leeward islands.  After that conditions will become unfavorable for further strengthening and models suggest that 96L will dissipate.  I mentioned this in this morning tropical update.  NHC gives this system a LOW chance 20% within 48 hours and a HIGH chance 70% withing 5-days.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 54°/56° West has some showers and storm north of the waves tilted axis.  Seems to be interacting with a surface trough north of the waves tilted axis.

4.  A westward moving tropical wave near 81° West continues to interact with an upper level low over the Northern Gulf.  Showers and storms continue to move in from the Atlantic and over Florida as this wave and the low are making the atmosphere unstable and favorable for storm development.  A times you can expect heavy downpours with possible street flooding, gusty winds to 45 mph and lightning with the stronger cells.  It seems that most of the heaviest moisture is gradually shifting north and southern Florida is seeing a reprieve from this mornings rains at this time.

NOTE:  At this time they have not uploaded the latest 18z models so I am unable to run them on my tracking software.  I will check later for any models they may have posted.

RTW