H. DORIAN 11 PM EDT

HURRICANE DORIAN ADVISORY
1100 PM EDT...09/02/19
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND CLUSTER TOGETHER TO KEEP THE CENTER OFF SHORE.  HOWEVER, SOME MODEL SHOW DORIAN BRUSHING THE COAST CLOSE ENOUGH FOR HURRICANE WINDS TO MOVE ON SHORE. 

SO INTEREST FROM NORTH OF PALM BEACH TO THE CAROLINA'S SHOULD PREP AND BE READY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS.  REGARDLESS OF LANDFALL THIS WILL BE A COASTAL STORM TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.  SO STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME UP THE COAST INCREASING FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINA'S

LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BLOCKING A NORTHWARD PROGRESSION SO UNFORTUNATELY THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE STILL BEING POUNDED BY STRONG WINDS AN STORM SURGE. 

DORIAN HAS WEAKEN SOME DUE TO UP WELLING OF THE COLDER WATERS FROM THE DEPTH OF THE OCEAN.  THIS HAS CAUSED COOLING AT THE SURFACE AND CUTTING OFF THE FUEL SOURCE FROM DORIAN.  DORIAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AN CAT 4 AS IT TRACKS CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THEN DECREASES TO A 3 OR TWO AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINA'S.

RTW 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
WTNT35 KNHC 030318 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  39...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Correction to the storm surge watch area

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE DORIAN IS STILL STATIONARY AND
CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound, GA to the Savannah River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches may be required tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.5 West.  Dorian is stationary
just north of Grand Bahama Island.  A slow northwestward motion is
expected to occur early Tuesday.  A turn toward the north is
forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to
begin by Wednesday night.  On this track, the core of extremely
dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama
Island into Tuesday morning.  The hurricane will then move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through
Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina
coast late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).  Settlement Point Grand Bahama recently reported a
sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h),
and Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County Florida recently
reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph
(91 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters was 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida on Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area through early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands on Tuesday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia.  These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi