HURRICANE DORIAN HEADED TO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND

NHC

654 
WTNT35 KNHC 062058
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.9N 72.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Newfoundland from Boat Harbour to Triton.

All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued south of
the North Carolina/Virginia Border.

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Tidal Potomac
south of Cobb Island.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Salter Path NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Parson's Pond to Triton
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 72.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should
move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while
it is near or over eastern Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will persist for a few more hours
in the warning area over the Mid-Atlantic states.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme
southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the
warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada
by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
Saturday and Saturday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Salter Path to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest
Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF:  Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven