HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE

H. DORIAN UPDATE
09/01/19
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  DORIAN PACKING WINDS OF 180 MPH WITH A BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OF 914 MILLIBARS.

MODEL ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT OF THAT NORTHWARD TURN AND MOST KEEP THE CENTER OFF SHORE BUT RATHER CLOSE THE THE COAST.  SOME TAKE THE CENTER INLAND AROUND THE SPACE COAST AND OTHERS THE CAROLINA'S.  THAT CLOSE TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP THE COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA'S.  SO INTEREST UP THE COAST OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA'S NEED TO BE PREPARED AND CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

DORIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD BUT WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.  STORM SURGE UP THE COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINA'S AND EVEN NEW ENGLAND WILL MORE THAT LIKELY BE PROBLEM.  EURO FORECAST DORIAN TO BECOME A LARGE EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.

RTW

 CANADIAN MODEL (CMC)

 EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)

 AMERICAN MODEL (GFS)

NOAA MODEL (HWRF)

INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICON)

 CLOUD TEMPERATURE SATELLITE

GROUP ENERGY DENSITY MODEL (SHOWS LIGHTNING IN STORMS)