STORM INVESTIGATION FORMATION CHANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SEPT 8, 2019...1257 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER-RTW
Well I been monitoring both investigations 94L in the Central Atlantic and the lastest one which I believe NHC was monitoring a few days ago and dropped it from their investigation.
Invest 94L continues to move through a dry environment and the storms develop and then weaken. Models show no development until it is several hundred miles east of the northern leeward Islands.
The EURO and the GFS were mimicking the track last night tracking a depression or tropical storm north of Puerto Rico. Early this morning they moved the track to south of Puerto Rico and in between Dominican. The 06z GFS model was bullish and had another hurricane moving through the southern Bahamas and then up the east coast of Florida.
Model flip flopping is typical of long range models that is why we wait until they are much closer when forecast are more realistic. I always look for consistency in a forecast. So don't get to excited about what you see just be vigilant and come back daily to check what I post here.
The EURO has changed its tune not showing much development with the system.
As for the area northeast of the North Leeward that moves through as a weak low if at all. I will continue to monitor it, but models are not suggesting much from this system. It is being sheared right now and development i not likely at this time.
Only a forecast subject to change
Long Range forecast subject to change. Latest GFS doesn't even show this strong hurricane!
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