STORM INVESTIGATIONS AFTERNOON UPDATE

STORM INVESTIGATIONS
SEPT 11, 2019...0200 PM EDT

AS I MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL REVIEW, THAT 95L COULD REACH DEPRESSION STATUS BEFORE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST.  NHC HAS JUST CONFIRMED WHAT I PREVIOUSLY WROTE.  THIS MEANS WINDS FROM 25-38 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR FLORIDA.  AFTER IT CROSSES THE STATE AND ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT IT COULD STRENGTHEN TO HUMBERTO AS A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A CAT-1 HURRICANE AS INTENSITY MODELS CALL FOR.

RTW 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a
sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern
Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical
depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida
as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, was
located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  This
disturbance is accompanied by a few thunderstorms showing little
organization. The system is forecast to move westward where
upper-level winds will become even less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near
the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward
during the next several days. Environmental conditions may become
more favorable for development as the system approaches the Lesser
Antilles from late this weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Burke/Blake