STORM INVESTIGATIONS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN

STORM INVESTIGATIONS
SEPT 9, 2019...0959 AM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

1.  I CONTINUE TO REVIEW MODELS AND THEY ARE NOW A BIT MORE CONSISTENT ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK EITHER NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD (EURO) VS THE GFS WHICH HAS A WORSE CASE SCENARIO TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER PUERTO RICO, MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. 

THIS TURN SEEMS TO BE DUE TO THE AZORES HIGH PRESSURE BEING FURTHER EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE PERFECT TIME.  THIS TURNS THE GFS OUT TO SEA AND THE EURO BEING A SHORT RANGE MODEL SHOWS THAT TURN AS WELL.  PRAY FOR THE GFS TO ALIGN ITSELF WITH THE EURO SO THEIR WOULD BE IN LAND INTERACTION AT ALL. 

2.  AS FOR THE OTHER INVEST WITH NO NUMBER YET.  THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW IS THE EURO MODEL.  THIS MODEL TRACKS THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.  DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WOULD BE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST OR IN THE NORTHEAST GULF.  HOWEVER, THE EURO AT THIS TIME DOES NOT SHOW STRONG SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.  IF THE FORECAST HOLDS YOU CAN EXPECTED RAIN, STORMS AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS MOVING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA BETWEEN THU AND SUNDAY. 

REMEMBER THESE ARE ONLY FORECAST AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE!

RTW

00Z ECMWF (EUROPEAN MODEL)

06Z GFS (AMERICAN MODEL)