STORM INVESTIGATION IN THE ATLANTIC

STORM INVESTIGATIONS
OCT 7, 2019...1020 AM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

The Storm Invest closer to the east coast with LOW formation chance will more than likely be a coastal storm problem from the Carolina northward.  EURO model show strong wind gust along the coast as the low combined with high pressure to its west produces a strong pressure gradient along the coast.  This system is forecast to meander off the coast a couple of days before a trough of low pressure tracks east and pushes this system to the east.

As for the other Storm Invest, with a MED formation chance, that system is not a threat to land only to the shipping lanes.

RTW

National Hurricane Center Tropic Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A developing non-tropical low pressure system over the central
Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores is producing winds to gale
force.  Gradual development of this system is possible while it
moves slowly westward, and a tropical or subtropical storm could
form on Tuesday or Wednesday before upper-level winds become
unfavorable.  Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms located over the western Atlantic several
hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda are associated with a trough
of low pressure.  This system is forecast to move northwestward and
a non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form when the system
interacts with a frontal boundary in a couple of days.  The low
could acquire some subtropical characteristics later in the week
while it meanders off the east coast of the United States.
Additional information on this system can also be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown