EVENING STORM INVESTIGATION 90L UPDATE

National Hurricane Center

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of 
Florida. 

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the Straits 
of Florida continues to produce disorganized shower activity and 
gusty winds from portions of southern Florida and the northwestern 
Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters.  Gradual 
development is still expected, and the system is likely to become a 
tropical or subtropical depression or storm on Saturday while it 
passes the northwestern Bahamas and moves north-northeastward over 
the Atlantic waters east of Florida.  Later in the weekend and early 
next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward 
over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring 
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of southeastern 
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through Saturday.  In addition, 
hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east 
coast and in the Bahamas, where Gale Warnings are currently in 
effect.  Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are also 
possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and 
early next week.  See products from your local weather office and 
High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow 
morning, if necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on 
this system will be issued by 3 AM EDT Saturday morning, or earlier 
if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Berg