QUICK TROPICAL 200 PM UPDATE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161800
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of 
Florida. 

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images 
indicate that the low pressure system located just off the coast of 
east-central Florida has become better defined today.  In addition, 
the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually 
organize. If these trends continues, advisories will likely be 
initiated on this system as a tropical or subtropical depression 
later today. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system 
is expected to move generally northeastward over the western 
Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas.

The system will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy 
rains across portions of east-central Florida through tonight.  
Interests near the North Carolina coast should closely monitor the 
progress of this system, as it could produce gusty winds and heavy 
rains there on Monday, and a tropical storm watch will likely be
issued for that area later today.  In addition, hazardous marine 
conditions will spread northward during the next few days, likely 
causing dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the southeast 
and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See products from your local 
National Weather Service office for more details. Another Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system this evening. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on 
this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi