CRISTOBAL A POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT FOR THE NORTH GULF STATES

CRISTOBAL UPDATE 1000 AM EDT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 89.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from Indian Pass to Arepika, Florida, and from Grand Isle,
Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from Intracoastal City Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake
Maurepas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Tropical storm conditions in the watch area in Mexico could occur
through this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 89.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of 
days.  On the forecast track, the center will move back over the 
southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, over the central Gulf of 
Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast 
Sunday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and 
Cristobal is expected to regain tropical storm strength later 
today.  Some additional strengthening is forecast thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka to Marco Island including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Grand Isle to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Indian Pass to Aripeka...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs to Indian Pass including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today within the
Tropical Storm Watch area of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
of the northern Gulf coast beginning early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central
Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast.
Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast.  Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley,
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches,
are expected.  Rises along smaller-order streams are possible
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This degree of rainfall is
expected to lead to flash flooding.

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches.

Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El
Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of
35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would
continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch