...LAURA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...INTENSITY MODELS CALLS FOR MAJOR STORM IN GULF...

 

 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA....
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER JAMAICA, THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 80.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, and
Granma.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana,
Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 80.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so.  A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should 
continued through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of 
the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this 
evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. 
Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern 
Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the 
northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. 

NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the 
maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is 
expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and 
Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional 
strengthening forecast on Wednesday. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total 
rainfall accumulations through today:

Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum 
amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy 
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, 
and the potential for mudslides. 

From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce 
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the 
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower 
Mississippi Valley.  This rainfall could cause widespread flash and 
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to 
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this
afternoon and tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of 
Hispaniola, eastern and central Cuba, and the Bahamas. These swells 
are expected to spread across western Cuba and the Florida Keys 
today. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown