...LAURA STILL HOLDING HER OWN WHILE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER DOMINICAN AND HAITI...RTW

 

 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the 
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area today.  The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over 
the next couple of days.  A turn toward the northwest is foreast 
on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move 
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.  Laura is expected to move 
over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and 
Wednesday. 

Recent data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that 
maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The strongest winds are primarily occuring over water to the 
northeast of the center.  Little change in strength is forecast 
while Laura moves near Cuba. Strengthening is forecast after the 
storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to 
become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas,
and Jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Florida
Keys.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area
tonight through Monday evening.

SURF:  Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.  These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown