Friday, August 21, 2020

THIRTEEN BECOMES LAURA WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NICARAGUA HONDURIAN COAST...

 


TROPICAL STORM LAURA

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Corrected to include Montserrat in the Tropical Storm Warning

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Montserrat, and the 
British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Cabron to the border with Haiti.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with
the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Cabron to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.2 West.  Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally 
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected 
over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later 
today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the 
northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the
southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday.  Maximum amounts up to 8
inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well
as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in
Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands,
the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of 
the warning area area later today through Saturday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday 
night and early Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NHC MAPS CLICK HERE: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 


SEEMS TO ME THAT THE UKMET HAS BEEN THE MOST ACCURATE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  NHC HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ADJUSTING TRACK SOUTH.

 

 


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

986 
WTNT34 KNHC 211456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 84.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula north and west of Cancun to
Dzilam.

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua
border westward to Punta Castilla.

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 84.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h).  A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next
couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and
Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  The
center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf
of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today.  The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.  Some
weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula
Saturday night.  Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday
as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday
night and Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands
of Honduras today.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.  This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.

Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.

Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 



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