GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. THE CMC MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE THAT SUGGEST A WEAK SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM OFF THE FLORIDA CAROLINA COAST. I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SINCE ITS STILL TO FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE TO SAY IF THESE FORECAST ARE VALID.
RTW
000 WTNT31 KNHC 121442 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 44.2W ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 44.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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