...TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...RTW

000
WTNT31 KNHC 142035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF JOSEPHINE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 56.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week.  On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Slight strengthening is possible tonight.
After that, Josephine is expected to weaken over the weekend as it
encounters unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Isolated minor flooding is 
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven