TROPICAL OUTLOOK...STORM INVESTIGATIONS

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure 
system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has 
become a little better organized this morning.  Additional gradual 
tropical or subtropical development of this system is possible 
through the middle of next week while the low meanders over the 
central Atlantic well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week 
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of 
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while 
it remains nearly stationary over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NOTE THAT THE GFS HAS FLIPPED BACK TO THE WEST NEAR FLORIDA.  THIS WILL CONITUNE

UNTIL WE HAVE AN ACTUAL STORM CENTER TO TRACK. SO UNTIL THEN WE WILL SEE THESE 

BOGUS STORM POSITIONS. NOTE AT TOP LEFT IS THE DATES OF MODEL RUN SO YOU CAN SEE 

THAT OCT 16 O6Z MOST RECENT FROM THIS MORNING MODEL SHOWS THE STORM NEAR THE 

SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. RTW