TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 29, 2021

 

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

MAY 28, 2021 1226 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO

• THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS QUIET WITH A TWO SURFACE TROUGH. FIRST TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATER.  SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP SOMETIME TODAY ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH.

• SECOND TROUGH SOUTHERN AXIS IS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST IN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS AND JUST OFF SHORE THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA.

• I WILL BE MONITOR A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT PROMPTED SEVERE STORMS OVER NIGHT AND TODAY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.  IF THAT ENERGY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND LINGERS THERE, IT COULD BECOME SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.   

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME WITH SOME STRONG TO MODERATE STORMS IN THE USUAL AREA, THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER PANAMA.  THESE ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT FLOWS THROUGH THIS REGION.

THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE MONAS PASSAGE BETWEEN DOMINICAN AND PUERTO RICO.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS TROUGH AT THIS TIME. 

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND VOID OF ANY CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS).

NORTH, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

 THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET FOR NOW.  AS FOR THE CENTRAL  ATLANTIC IT REMAINS RATHER BUSY WITH STRONG TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST OF AFRICAN COAST WHERE THE MONSOON FLOW MEETS UP WITH THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE).  THIS IS ALL ITCZ RELATED ACTIVITY WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITH IN THE ITCZ.  NEITHER WAVE IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

RTW