...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 21, 2021...1020AM EDT

 

RTW TROPICAL OUTLOOK 

JUNE 21, 2021...1020AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST AND THE BAHAMAS

THE GULF IS QUIET ACCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF STILL SEEING RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.

THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED WITH SOME STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS OFF SHORE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EAST TOWARD FLORIDA. 

FLORIDA IS CLOUDY AND VERY HUMID AND CLAUDETTE MOISTURE IS SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STORM.  BAHAMAS COULD SEE SOME STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN HEATS THE SURFACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA

CARIBBEAN IS QUIET FOR NOW BUT THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PANAMA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM CELL IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70° WEST HAS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  

EASTERN CARIBBEAN QUIET FOR NOW

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

 NORTH ATLANTIC HAS CLAUDETTE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF SHORE, BUT THE REST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS A NEW STORM INVEST WITH A LOW 20% CHANCE OF FORMING THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

THERE IS A WAVE BEHIND THIS INVEST MORE THAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM INVEST.  MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHICH IS NEAR 45° WEST.  BEHIND THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 35°-33° WEST.  THIS WAVE IS VOID OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.  

LAST WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17°-16° WEST.  THIS SEEMS LIKE A STRONG WAVE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO BEING IN ENHANCED BY THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND THE WAVES INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211111
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Claudette, located inland over northeastern 
North Carolina.

A well-defined tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast 
of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Some development of this disturbance will be possible 
during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less 
conducive for further organization by Thursday.  The system is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Ralph's Tropical Weather