...ELSA GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CATCHING UP WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...

 

LATEST SATELLITE REVIEW SHOWS CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORM) CATCHING UP TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE ONLY THING HOLDING ELSA FROM REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS THE LAND INTERACTION.  HOWEVER, AS ELSA CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI, OVER OPEN WATERS, AND SLOWS DOWN SOME MORE, THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING.  

THERE ARE STILL TWO INTENSITY MODELS THAT SUGGEST ELSA AS A CAT 1 HURRICANE AGAIN.  THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE TEMPORARY AS CUBA IS IN ELSA PATH AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL MOST DEFINITELY DISRUPT THE STORMS STRUCTURE.

FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGA UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND EVENTUALLY THAT WILL BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING DEPENDING ON ELSA'S STORM STRUCTURE SURVIVING MORE LAND INTERACTION.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...CENTER OF ELSA CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... 

5:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.5°N 73.9°W
Moving: WNW at 28 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

 

NHC FORECAST TRACK TREND

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