...FRED MAY ENCOUNTER WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO ITS NORTH...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE PERFECT...GRACE STRUGGLING SOME SHEAR OVER THE STORM...

FRED IS MORE THAN LIKELY NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  40MPH SUSTAIN SURFACE WINDS ARE WITHIN THAT THRESHOLD FOR A TROPICAL STORM.  ALL NIGHT WINDS AT THE KEYS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AT TIME 40-50MPH.  

ON FRED'S TRACK IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE.

ALSO THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR STILL LINGERING IN THE GULF WHICH COULD BE HOLDING FRED FROM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

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5:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 15
Location: 24.4°N 84.6°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

 

MODEL TREND

 

GRACE IS ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, GRACE WILL ENCOUNTER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS FRED DID. THIS WILL WEAKEN GRACE EVEN FURTHER AND SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW GRACE AS AN OPEN WAVE WHEN THE STORM EXITS DOMINICAN.  SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH GRACE.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THIS MAKES FORECASTING GRACE MORE COMPLICATED.  SO KEEP WATCHING GRACE DURING THE COMING DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

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5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 15
Location: 16.9°N 64.4°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

 

MODEL TREND

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National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather