...IDA HAS NOT STRENGTHEN SINCE LAST ADVISORY BUT IT IS FORECAST THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...

 

STORM HAS NOT CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT THE EYE IS RATHER SMALL AND TIGHT AND THIS COULD MEAN THAT IDA IS STRONGER. HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES HAVE BEEN HAVING MECHANICAL PROBLEMS TODAY SO THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT HAVE DATA FROM THE PLANE.  PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SO MORE THAN LIKELY IDA IS GETTING STRONGER.  I BEEN MONITORING MODEL TREND AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.  THIS HAS BEEN NOTED BY NHC AS WELL.  HURRICANE WIND IMPACTS TO NEW ORLEANS IS INCREASING IF THE TRACK KEEPS SHIFTING EAST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...

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10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28
Location: 27.2°N 88.0°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

06z-12z-18z-00z MODEL TREND DEFINITE SHIFT EAST IN THIS ANIMATION