...NOW THAT FRED IS DOWN GRADED TO AN OPEN WAVE, SEVEN GETS THE NAME OF GRACE...

 

NOW THAT FRED IS DOWN FOR THE COUNT...I FOCUS MY ATTENTION ON GRACE UNTIL FRED MAKES HIS COME BACK IF AT ALL.

GRACE IS LOOKING HEALTHY OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW WIND SHEAR.  A TRACK OVER SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SOME COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR DOMINICAN LEFT BEHIND BY FRED IS GOING TO BE AN OBSTACLE THAT GRACE WILL HAVE TO HURDLE.  INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT GRACE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE STORMS LIFE TIME BUT WILL SEE.

THE TRACK IS ALMOST LIKE FRED'S OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BUT WE NO THIS WILL CHANGE IN TIME , MORE THAN LIKELY ANOTHER GULF STORM.  HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS GENERALLY TRACKING THESE STORMS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THIS SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN FOR NOW..

EURO MODEL TRACKS GRACE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES JUST LIKE FRED AND DOES NOT SHOW GRACE STRENGTHENING.  GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND TRACKS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA THEN STRENGTHENS IT INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF AND TRACKS IT WEST TOWARD TEXAS.

ONCE AGAIN THESE MODELS TEND TO DO THIS AND WE KNOW THAT INTENSITY MODELS ARE NOT ACCURATE MOST OF THE TIME.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED AND GRACE.

RTW